Turkish Economy in Crisis
Turkish Economy in Crisis
Bağımsız
Sosyal Bilimciler 2006 Yılı Raporu IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 1998-2008:
Farklı Hükumetler, Tek Siyaset, Haziran 2006
Macroeconomics
of Twin-Targeting in Turkey: A General Equilibrium Analysis,
June 2006 (with Ebru Voyvoda).
2001
Krizi Sonrasında Türkiye: Dış Borçlanma ve Spekülasyona Dayalı Büyüme Çözülürken,
Malatya İnönü Üniversitesi, Ulusal Bağımsızlık İçin İktisat Politikaları
Kurultay'ına Sunulan Tebliğ Haziran 2006
Modeling
General Equilibrium for Socially Responsible Macro Economics:Seeking for
the Alternatives to Fight Jobless Growth in Turkey, March 2006,
(with Ebru Voyvoda and Cagatay Telli)
On Economic and Social Life in Turkey in Early 2005 (Independent Social Scientists' Alliance, July 2005)
Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey March 2005 (with Pierre-Richard Agenor, Henning Tarp-Jensen and Mathew Verghis)
2005 Başında Türkiye'nin Ekonomik ve Siyasal Yaşamı Üzerine Değerlendirmeler (Bağımsız Sosyal Bilimciler Grubu, Mart 2005)
Korkut Boratav & Erinç Yeldan, Milliyet Gazetesi Business Eki Söylesi 16 Ocak 2005
Is Turkey the next Argentina? International Herald Tribune, Op-Ed, 4 December 2004 (with Mark Weisbrot).
IMF's theories fail to see how Turkey's hopes are on a knife edge, Financial Times, Editorial Letter, 2 November 2004
TURKEY 2001-2004: IMF Strangulation, Tightening Debt Trap, and Lopsided Recovery (June, 2004)
Türkiye Ekonomisi’nde Dis Borç Sorunu Ve Kalkinma Stratejileri Açisindan Analizi (Calisma ve Toplum, Birlesik Metal-Is)
2004 Basinda Turkiye'nin Ekonomik ve Siyasal Yasami Uzerine Degerlendirmeler (Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler, Mart 2004)
Küresellesmenin Neresindeyiz? Türkiye Ekonomisi'nde Borç Sorunu ve IMF Politikalari Stradigma.COM Kasim, 2003
IMF
is Responsible: Sketch of Notes on the IMF's 2000 Disinflation Program
in Turkey
MANAGING
TURKISH DEBT: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model
for Turkey (June 2003, with Ebru Voyvoda)
In this paper we investigate the fiscal policy alternatives
on domestic debt management, cohort welfare, and growth for the Turkish
economy. We utilize a model of exogenous growth in the overlapping generations
(OLG) tradition with intertemporally optimizing agents and open capital
markets, calibrated to the Turkish economy in 1990s. We examine the macroeconomic
effects of the current IMF-led austerity program driven by the objective
of attaining primary fiscal surpluses and illustrate the sensitivity of
the program targets to growth shocks. Our results suggest that the current
fiscal program based on the primary surplus objective succeeds in containing
the explosive dynamics of debt accumulation, and yet, the path of aggregate
public debt as a ratio to GNP displays significant degree of inertia and
would be brought down only gradually and slowly.
2003
YILI BUTCESI ve ISTIKRAR PROGRAMI UZERINE DEGERLENDIRMELER: Yeni
Ekonomik Onlemler paketi Barisin Degil, IMF Programinin Maliyetidir
(Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler, Mart 2003)
BEYOND
CRISIS ADJUSTMENT: Investigation of Fiscal Policy Alternatives in an OLG
Model of Endogenous Growth for Turkey (August 2002, with Ebru
Voyvoda)
In this paper we investigate the fiscal policy alternatives
on domestic debt management and public expenditures on education, cohort
welfare, and growth for the Turkish economy. We utilize a model of
endogenous growth in the overlapping generations (OLG) tradition with intertemporally
optimizing agents and open capital markets, calibrated to the Turkish economy
in 1990s. We examine the macroeconomic effects of the current IMF-led austerity
program driven by the objective of attaining primary fiscal surpluses and
illustrate the ruinous effects of constrained human capital investments
due to insufficient funds to public education, and constrained real production
activities due to the current mode of financing of domestic debt. We then
examine various taxation alternatives to mitigate the reductions in the
availability of public funds to reproducible factors of production. Our
results suggest that the current fiscal program based on the primary surplus
objective suffers from serious trade offs on growth and fiscal targets,
and that an alternative public expenditure program supported by tax reform
over wealth income is likely to produce superior economic performance.
Turkiye Ekonomisi Icin Kriz-Sonrasi Alternatif Uyum Stratejileri (Eylul, 2002, Ebru Voyvoda ile birlikte)
Istikrar
Kim Için: Kriz Uzerine Degerlendirmeler (Birikim,
kasim 2002)
BEHIND
THE 2000/2001 TURKISH CRISIS: Stability, Credibility, and Governance, for
Whom? (Paper presented at the IDEAs Conference,
Chennai, December, 2002)
Turkey experienced a very severe
economic and political crisis in November 2000 and again in February which
deepened and continued to-date. The IMF has been involved with the
macro management of the Turkish economy both prior and after the crisis,
and provided financial assistance of 20.6$ billions in net terms between
1999 and 2002. The official stance is that the crisis was the result
of the failure of the public sector to maintain the austerity targets and
the failure to fully implement the free market rationale of globalization.
I argue in this paper, however, that contrary to the official wisdom, the
current economic and political crisis is not the end result of a set of
technical errors or administrative mismanagement unique to Turkey, but
is the result of series of pressures emanating from the process of integration
with the global capital markets. I document the fragility indicators
of the Turkish financial and the fiscal system, and show that the dis-inflation
program led to an increase of the vulnerability of the financial system
throughout 2000/2001. I further argue that the recent wave of structural
reforms destined for stability and credibility, serve, in fact, mainly
the interests of the foreign financial capital, and primarily aim at securing
the debt obligations of the Turkish arbiters.
Measuring
Exchange Rate Mis-alignment in Turkey (May 2002, with Ümit Özlale)
Turkey:
Economy, Politics and Society in the Post-Crisis Era (July
2002, with Ümit Cizre)
Turkey initiated an extensive
dis-inflation program in December 1999 backed and supervised by The International
Monetary Fund (IMF). The Program aimed at decreasing the inflation rate
to a single digit by the end of 2002. It exclusively relied on a nominally
pegged (anchored) exchange rate system for dis-inflation and on fiscal
prudence. In February 2001, however, Turkey experienced a very severe financial
crisis which deepened and continued to-date. The official stance is that
the crisis was the result of the failure of the public sector to maintain
the austerity targets and the failure to fully implement the free market
rationale of globalization. We argue in this paper that, contrary
to the official wisdom, the current economic and political crisis is not
the end result of a set of technical errors or administrative mismanagement
unique to Turkey, but is the result of series of pressures emanating from
the process of integration with the global capital markets. We further
provide a discussion on the fundamental parameters of the Turkish politics
connected with the crisis.
Turkey,
1980-2000: Financial Liberalization, Macroeconomic (In)-Stability and Patterns
of Distribution (January 2002,
with Korkut Boratav)
Subat
2002 Niyet Mektubu ve 2002 Yili Basinda Turkiye Ekonomisi (Bagimsiz
Sosyal Bilimciler Iktisat Grubu)
Subat 2002
On the
IMF-Directed Disinflation Program in Turkey: A Program For Stabilization
and Austerity or a Recipe for Impoverishment and Financial Chaos? (September,
2001)
GÜÇLÜ EKONOMIYE GEÇIS PROGRAMI ÜZERINE DEGERLENDIRMELER (Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler - Iktisat Grubu) (Temmuz, 2001)
BIR TAKAS ISLEMININ ARDINDAN Birikim Temmuz 2001
Türkiye
Ekonomisinde Krizin Yapisal Dayanaklari (Ya Da Kriz Sürecini Bölüsüm Eksenine
Oturtmak Üzerine Temel Degerlendirmeler) Birikim
Nisan
2001
