Turkish
Economy Post-2000
Sendika.Org ile Söyleşi: Ekonomi Tıkırında (8 Mayıs 2010)
Hatırlatma:
Milliyet 2005 Söyleşi: En Büyük Kriz, K. Boratav, B. Kuruç, O. Türel, E.
Yeldan, A. Köse
Bağımsız
Sosyal Bilimciler Aralık 2008 Basın Duyurusu: Küresel Kriz Kapitalizmin Ta
Kendisidir
Bağımsız
Sosyal Bilimciler 2006 Yılı Raporu IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 1998-2008:
Farklı Hükumetler, Tek Siyaset, Haziran 2006
Macroeconomics
of Twin-Targeting in Turkey: A General Equilibrium Analysis, June
2006 (with Ebru Voyvoda).
2001
Krizi Sonrasında Türkiye: Dış Borçlanma ve Spekülasyona Dayalı Büyüme
Çözülürken, Malatya İnönü Üniversitesi, Ulusal Bağımsızlık İçin İktisat
Politikaları Kurultay'ına Sunulan Tebliğ Haziran 2006
Modeling
General Equilibrium for Socially Responsible Macro Economics:Seeking for the
Alternatives to Fight Jobless Growth in Turkey, March 2006, (with
Ebru Voyvoda and Cagatay Telli)
On Economic and Social Life in Turkey in Early 2005 (Independent Social Scientists' Alliance, July 2005)
Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey March 2005 (with Pierre-Richard Agenor, Henning Tarp-Jensen and Mathew Verghis)
2005 Başında Türkiye'nin Ekonomik ve Siyasal Yaşamı Üzerine Değerlendirmeler (Bağımsız Sosyal Bilimciler Grubu, Mart 2005)
Korkut Boratav & Erinç Yeldan, Milliyet Gazetesi Business Eki Söylesi 16 Ocak 2005
Is Turkey the next Argentina? International Herald Tribune, Op-Ed, 4 December 2004 (with Mark Weisbrot).
IMF's theories fail to see how Turkey's hopes are on a knife edge, Financial Times, Editorial Letter, 2 November 2004
TURKEY 2001-2004: IMF Strangulation, Tightening Debt Trap, and Lopsided Recovery (June, 2004)
Türkiye Ekonomisi’nde Dis Borç Sorunu Ve Kalkinma Stratejileri Açisindan Analizi (Calisma ve Toplum, Birlesik Metal-Is)
2004 Basinda Turkiye'nin Ekonomik ve Siyasal Yasami Uzerine Degerlendirmeler (Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler, Mart 2004)
Küresellesmenin Neresindeyiz? Türkiye Ekonomisi'nde Borç Sorunu ve IMF Politikalari Stradigma.COM Kasim, 2003
IMF is
Responsible: Sketch of Notes on the IMF's 2000 Disinflation Program in Turkey
MANAGING
TURKISH DEBT: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for
Turkey (June 2003, with Ebru Voyvoda)
In this paper we investigate the fiscal
policy alternatives on domestic debt management, cohort welfare, and growth for
the Turkish economy. We utilize a model of exogenous growth in the overlapping
generations (OLG) tradition with intertemporally optimizing agents and open
capital markets, calibrated to the Turkish economy in 1990s. We examine the
macroeconomic effects of the current IMF-led austerity program driven by the
objective of attaining primary fiscal surpluses and illustrate the sensitivity
of the program targets to growth shocks. Our results suggest that the current
fiscal program based on the primary surplus objective succeeds in containing
the explosive dynamics of debt accumulation, and yet, the path of aggregate
public debt as a ratio to GNP displays significant degree of inertia and would
be brought down only gradually and slowly.
2003
YILI BUTCESI ve ISTIKRAR PROGRAMI UZERINE DEGERLENDIRMELER: Yeni Ekonomik
Onlemler paketi Barisin Degil, IMF Programinin Maliyetidir (Bagimsiz Sosyal
Bilimciler, Mart 2003)
BEYOND CRISIS
ADJUSTMENT: Investigation of Fiscal Policy Alternatives in an OLG Model of
Endogenous Growth for Turkey (August 2002, with Ebru Voyvoda)
In this paper we investigate the fiscal
policy alternatives on domestic debt management and public expenditures on
education, cohort welfare, and growth for the Turkish economy. We utilize
a model of endogenous growth in the overlapping generations (OLG) tradition
with intertemporally optimizing agents and open capital markets, calibrated to
the Turkish economy in 1990s. We examine the macroeconomic effects of the
current IMF-led austerity program driven by the objective of attaining primary
fiscal surpluses and illustrate the ruinous effects of constrained human
capital investments due to insufficient funds to public education, and
constrained real production activities due to the current mode of financing of
domestic debt. We then examine various taxation alternatives to mitigate the
reductions in the availability of public funds to reproducible factors of
production. Our results suggest that the current fiscal program based on the
primary surplus objective suffers from serious trade offs on growth and fiscal
targets, and that an alternative public expenditure program supported by tax
reform over wealth income is likely to produce superior economic performance.
Turkiye Ekonomisi Icin Kriz-Sonrasi Alternatif Uyum Stratejileri (Eylul, 2002, Ebru Voyvoda ile birlikte)
Istikrar
Kim Için: Kriz Uzerine Degerlendirmeler (Birikim,
kasim 2002)
BEHIND
THE 2000/2001 TURKISH CRISIS: Stability, Credibility, and Governance, for Whom? (Paper presented at the IDEAs Conference, Chennai,
December, 2002)
Turkey experienced a very severe
economic and political crisis in November 2000 and again in February which
deepened and continued to-date. The IMF has been involved with the macro
management of the Turkish economy both prior and after the crisis, and provided
financial assistance of 20.6$ billions in net terms between 1999 and
2002. The official stance is that the crisis was the result of the
failure of the public sector to maintain the austerity targets and the failure
to fully implement the free market rationale of globalization. I argue in
this paper, however, that contrary to the official wisdom, the current economic
and political crisis is not the end result of a set of technical errors or
administrative mismanagement unique to Turkey, but is the result of series of
pressures emanating from the process of integration with the global capital
markets. I document the fragility indicators of the Turkish financial and
the fiscal system, and show that the dis-inflation program led to an increase
of the vulnerability of the financial system throughout 2000/2001. I
further argue that the recent wave of structural reforms destined for stability
and credibility, serve, in fact, mainly the interests of the foreign financial
capital, and primarily aim at securing the debt obligations of the Turkish
arbiters.
Measuring
Exchange Rate Mis-alignment in Turkey (May 2002, with Ümit Özlale)
Turkey:
Economy, Politics and Society in the Post-Crisis Era (July 2002, with Ümit Cizre)
Turkey initiated an extensive
dis-inflation program in December 1999 backed and supervised by The
International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Program aimed at decreasing the
inflation rate to a single digit by the end of 2002. It exclusively relied on a
nominally pegged (anchored) exchange rate system for dis-inflation and on
fiscal prudence. In February 2001, however, Turkey experienced a very severe
financial crisis which deepened and continued to-date. The official stance is
that the crisis was the result of the failure of the public sector to maintain
the austerity targets and the failure to fully implement the free market
rationale of globalization. We argue in this paper that, contrary to the
official wisdom, the current economic and political crisis is not the end
result of a set of technical errors or administrative mismanagement unique to
Turkey, but is the result of series of pressures emanating from the process of
integration with the global capital markets. We further provide a discussion
on the fundamental parameters of the Turkish politics connected with the
crisis.
Turkey,
1980-2000: Financial Liberalization, Macroeconomic (In)-Stability and Patterns
of Distribution (January 2002,
with Korkut Boratav)
Subat
2002 Niyet Mektubu ve 2002 Yili Basinda Turkiye Ekonomisi (Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler Iktisat Grubu)
Subat 2002
On the
IMF-Directed Disinflation Program in Turkey: A Program For Stabilization and
Austerity or a Recipe for Impoverishment and Financial Chaos? (September, 2001)
GÜÇLÜ EKONOMIYE GEÇIS PROGRAMI ÜZERINE DEGERLENDIRMELER (Bagimsiz Sosyal Bilimciler - Iktisat Grubu) (Temmuz, 2001)
BIR TAKAS ISLEMININ ARDINDAN Birikim Temmuz 2001
Türkiye
Ekonomisinde Krizin Yapisal Dayanaklari (Ya Da Kriz Sürecini Bölüsüm Eksenine
Oturtmak Üzerine Temel Degerlendirmeler) Birikim Nisan 2001
